POLYVENUE
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PolyVenue operates as the central nervous system for speculative intelligence. Aggregating probabilities from the decentralized ether.
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ARENA
Live Event Probability Stream
Super Bowl Champion 2026
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026?
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UEFA Champions League Winner
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?
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English Premier League Winner
Will Brentford win the 2025–26 English Premier League?
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2026 NBA Champion
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?
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2026 FIFA World Cup Winner
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
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If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
La Liga Winner
Will Celta Vigo win the 2025–26 La Liga?
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NBA MVP
Will Trae Young win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?
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College Football Champion 2026
Will Texas win the 2026 College Football National Championship?
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Grizzlies vs. Lakers
Jaren Jackson Jr.: Assists Over 2.5
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If the Grizzlies win, the market will resolve to "Grizzlies".
If the Lakers win, the market will resolve to "Lakers".
If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed.
If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.
The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.
2026 NHL Stanley Cup Champion
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?
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NFL MVP
Will C.J. Stroud win the 2025–26 NFL MVP award?
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Logan Paul’s Pikachu Illustrator Sale Price
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $18 million?
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The market will resolve according to the final listed price including any premiums or auction fees included in the listed figure on .
The resolution source is Goldin (See:https://goldin.co/item/logan-paul-personally-owned-1998-pokemon-japanese-corocoro-promo-raretua0w).
Lakers vs. Spurs
Spread: Spurs (-6.5)
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If the Lakers win, the market will resolve to "Lakers".
If the Spurs win, the market will resolve to "Spurs".
If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed.
If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.
The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.
PDC World Darts Championship Winner
Will Luke Littler win the PDC World Darts Championship?
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This market will resolve according to the player who wins the PDC World Darts Championship.
If a listed player is eliminated from contention for the PDC World Darts Championship based on the official rules of the tournament, the relevant market will resolve to "No".
If no winner is announced by January 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source will be the official results published on the PDC website (https://www.pdc.tv).
NFC Champion
Will the Cardinals win the NFC Championship?
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Magic vs. Nets
Magic vs. Nets: O/U 221.5
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If the Magic win, the market will resolve to "Magic".
If the Nets win, the market will resolve to "Nets".
If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed.
If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.
The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.
Arsenal FC vs. Liverpool FC
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-08?
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Serie A League Winner
Will Roma win the 2025–26 Serie A league?
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2026 Men's Australian Open Winner
Will Jack Draper win the 2026 Australian Open?
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This market will resolve to the player that wins the 2026 Australian Open Men’s Singles Tournament.
If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to win the 2026 Australian Open Men’s Singles Tournament per the rules of the tournament, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”.
If the 2026 Australian Open Men’s Singles Tournament is cancelled, postponed after February 28, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Australian Open (https://ausopen.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
AFC Champion
Will the Bills win the AFC Championship?
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Colts vs. Texans
Colts Team Total: O/U 13.5
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If Colts wins, the market will resolve to "Colts".
If Texans wins, the market will resolve to "Texans".
If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed.
If the game is canceled entirely or ends in a tie, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.
Suns vs. Grizzlies
Spread: Suns (-5.5)
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If the Suns win, the market will resolve to "Suns".
If the Grizzlies win, the market will resolve to "Grizzlies".
If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed.
If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.
The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.
Buccaneers vs. Dolphins
Buccaneers vs. Dolphins
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If Buccaneers wins, the market will resolve to "Buccaneers".
If Dolphins wins, the market will resolve to "Dolphins".
If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed.
If the game is canceled entirely or ends in a tie, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.
Which teams will make the NBA Playoffs?
Will the Atlanta Hawks make the NBA Playoffs?
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Note: reaching the Play-In Tournament will not qualify as making the Playoffs. To make the NBA Playoffs, a team must earn one of the 16 spots in the postseason bracket.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to make the Playoffs based on the rules of the NBA (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated from reaching the Play-In), this market will resolve immediately to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NBA.
Bundesliga Winner
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Bundesliga?
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UEFA Europa League Winner
Will Aston Villa win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League?
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NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year
Will Ashton Jeanty be the 2025-2026 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year?
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The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the NFL.
Champions League: League Phase Winner
Will Union Saint-Gilloise finish first in UCL league phase?
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If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed club to finish first in the league phase (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the associated market will resolve to "No".
If the 2025–26 UEFA Champions League league phase is canceled or not completed by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
If two or more clubs are level on points, the ranking will be determined according to UEFA’s official tie-breaker criteria as published for the competition.
The primary resolution source will be official information from UEFA. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
NBA Win Totals: Over or Under?
Will the Atlanta Hawks win more than 47.5 regular season games in 2025–26?
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed team wins more than their projected number of regular-season games. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
If the team becomes mathematically unable to exceed their projected win total before the season ends, this market will resolve to "No".
If the 2025–26 NBA regular season is canceled or not completed by May 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary source of resolution will be official information from the NBA. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Levante UD vs. Villarreal CF
Will Levante UD win on 2025-12-14?
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Cavaliers vs. Timberwolves
Spread: Timberwolves (-4.5)
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If the Cavaliers win, the market will resolve to "Cavaliers".
If the Timberwolves win, the market will resolve to "Timberwolves".
If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed.
If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.
The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.
Which NBA players will be traded this season?
Will Anthony Davis be traded this season?
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The NBA trade deadline for the 2025-2026 season is scheduled for February 5, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NBA; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
French Ligue 1 Winner
Will PSG win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1?
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English Premier League - Top 4 Finish
Will Arsenal finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings?
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If the listed club officially finishes in the top 4 of the English Premier League standings at the end of the season, the market will resolve to "Yes." Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."
If two or more clubs are tied on points for a top 4 position, resolution will follow the official English Premier League tiebreaking procedures.
If the 2025–26 English Premier League season is canceled or not completed before October 1, 2026, this market will resolve to "No."
The primary resolution source will be official information from the English Premier League. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Pacers vs. Hornets
1H Spread: Hornets (-1.5)
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If the Pacers win, the market will resolve to "Pacers".
If the Hornets win, the market will resolve to "Hornets".
If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed.
If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.
The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.
F1 Constructors' Champion
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?
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This market will resolve as soon as the official results of the final scheduled race of the 2026 F1 season are known.
In the case of a tie between multiple teams, this market will resolve according to the tiebreak procedure used by F1 to determine the 2026 F1 Constructors’ champion.
If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2026 F1 Constructors’ Championship based on the rules of F1 (e.g., they are mathematically eliminated from contention), the corresponding market will resolve to “No.”
If the F1 season is permanently canceled or has not been completed by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be information from F1.
NBA Defensive Player of the Year Winner
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Year?
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If the listed player is not announced as a finalist for the 2025–26 Defensive Player of the Year, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the NBA. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Miami vs. Ole Miss
Miami vs. Ole Miss
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If the Miami win, the market will resolve to "Miami".
If the Ole Miss win, the market will resolve to "Ole Miss".
If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed.
If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.
Heat vs. Bulls
Heat vs. Bulls: O/U 238.5
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If the Heat win, the market will resolve to "Heat".
If the Bulls win, the market will resolve to "Bulls".
If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed.
If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.
The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.
Mavericks vs. Jazz
1H Spread: Mavericks (-3.5)
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If the Mavericks win, the market will resolve to "Mavericks".
If the Jazz win, the market will resolve to "Jazz".
If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed.
If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.
The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.
2026 FIFA World Cup: Which countries qualify?
Will Italy qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
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Islanders vs. Predators
Islanders vs. Predators
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If the Islanders win, the market will resolve to "Islanders".
If the Predators win, the market will resolve to "Predators".
If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed.
If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.
The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods and shootouts. In the event of a shootout, one goal will be added to the winning team's score for the purpose of resolution.
Africa Cup of Nations Winner
Will Morocco win the CAF Africa Cup of Nations Morocco 2025?
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If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed team to win the CAF Africa Cup of Nations Morocco 2025 based on the rules of the tournament (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the CAF Africa Cup of Nations Morocco 2025 is permanently canceled or has not been completed by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be ESPN (https://www.espn.com/soccer/league/_/name/caf.nations); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
AC Milan vs. Genoa CFC
Will AC Milan win on 2026-01-08?
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Maple Leafs vs. Flyers
Maple Leafs vs. Flyers
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If the Maple Leafs win, the market will resolve to "Maple Leafs".
If the Flyers win, the market will resolve to "Flyers".
If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed.
If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.
The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods and shootouts. In the event of a shootout, one goal will be added to the winning team's score for the purpose of resolution.
Flames vs. Bruins
Flames vs. Bruins
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If the Flames win, the market will resolve to "Flames".
If the Bruins win, the market will resolve to "Bruins".
If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed.
If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.
The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods and shootouts. In the event of a shootout, one goal will be added to the winning team's score for the purpose of resolution.
Who will win a women's Calendar Grand Slam in 2026?
Will Aryna Sabalenka win a Calendar Grand Slam in 2026?
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This market resolves to the single woman player who wins the Women's Singles titles at all four Grand Slam tournaments in 2026. The relevant 2026 Grand Slams are the Women's Singles tournaments in the 2026 Australian Open, French Open, U.S. Open, and Wimbledon.
For the purpose of this market, a tournament victory is valid regardless of whether the final was won via a walkover, a mid-match retirement, or a standard completed match.
If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to achieve a Calendar Grand Slam in 2026 (e.g. Sabalenka does not win the 2026 Australian Open) this market will resolve immediately to "No".
If at any point it becomes impossible for any listed player to achieve a Calendar Grand Slam in 2026 (e.g. Sabalenka wins the 2026 Australian Open but loses in the first round of 2026 French Open) this market will resolve immediately to "None".
Otherwise, this market will resolve when the results of the final 2026 Grand Slam are official.
If any of the 2026 Grand Slam Women' Singles Tournaments are cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “None”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the organizers of the Grand Slam tournaments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Al Hilal Saudi Club vs. Al Hazem SC
Will Al Hilal Saudi Club win on 2026-01-08?
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NBA Southeast Division Winner
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2025–2026 NBA Southeast Division?
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If it becomes impossible for this team to win based on the rules of the NBA this market will resolve to “No”.
If multiple teams share the same record, official NBA tie breaking rules will be used to determine the outcome.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the NBA.
NFL Coach of the Year
Will Mike Macdonald win NFL Coach of the Year?
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The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the NFL.
Devils vs. Penguins
Devils vs. Penguins
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If the Devils win, the market will resolve to "Devils".
If the Penguins win, the market will resolve to "Penguins".
If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed.
If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.
The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods and shootouts. In the event of a shootout, one goal will be added to the winning team's score for the purpose of resolution.
NBA Rookie of the Year
Will Player E win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award?
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed player is officially named the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
If the award is not announced by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the NBA (https://www.nba.com).
2026 Winter Olympics: Most Gold Medals
Will Canada win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?
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In the case of ties, the ordered list for most gold medals won will use most overall medals won as a tiebreaker (e.g. If Norway and China tie for most gold medals won, and Norway wins more overall medals than China, Norway will be ranked first and China will be second). If this also results in a tie, the country whose name comes first in alphabetical order, as listed in this market group, will be ranked higher.
This market will resolve based on the medal figures as they stand after medals are awarded for the final event in the 2026 Milano-Cortina Winter Olympics. Later changes to medal counts will not be considered toward the resolution of this market.
If the 2026 Milano-Cortina Winter Olympics are partially completed and then cancelled or postponed after December 31, 2026, this market will resolve based on the gold medals awarded in the completed events. If the 2026 Milano-Cortina Winter Olympics are entirely cancelled or postponed after December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source will be official information from the International Olympic Committee (https://www.olympics.com/).
F1 Drivers' Champion
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
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This market will resolve as soon as the official results of the final scheduled race of the 2026 F1 season are known.
If multiple drivers tie for first place in the drivers standings, this market will resolve according to the tiebreak procedure used by F1 to determine the 2026 F1 Drivers’ champion.
If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed driver to win the 2026 F1 Drivers Championship based on the rules of F1 (e.g., they are mathematically eliminated from contention), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”.
If the F1 season is permanently canceled or has not been completed by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Formula 1.
Will xQc beat Forsen's Minecraft speedrun record by...?
Will xQc beat Forsen's Minecraft speedrun record in 2025?
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This market may resolve to “No” as soon as it becomes impossible for xQc to complete a qualifying speedrun within this market’s timeframe.
For the purpose of this market, “Minecraft speedrun” refers to a playthrough of Minecraft Java Edition version 1.16.1, using a random seed, starting from world creation and ending when the Ender Dragon is defeated.
For the purpose of this market, “Stream” refers to a live video broadcast hosted by xQc or where xQc is present. Prerecorded videos, videos not intended for public release, or other non-live content will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be xQc's Twitch channel (https://www.twitch.tv/xqc); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
NBA Coach of the Year Winner
Will Ime Udoka win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year?
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If the listed player is not announced as a finalist for the 2025–26 Coach of the Year, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the NBA. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
NBA Assists Per Game Leader
Will Player 10 lead the NBA in assists during the 2025–26 NBA season?
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In the event of a tie for the highest assists per-game average, this market will resolve in favor of the player who appeared in the greater number of games. If the tied players also played the same number of games, the market will resolve in favor of the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
Qualification for inclusion in official NBA leaderboards (such as minimum games or statistical thresholds) will be determined according to NBA rules and applied exactly as reflected in the official leaderboard.
The resolution source will be the NBA (NBA.com/stats).
Al Hilal Saudi Club vs. Al Hazem SC - More Markets
Al Hilal Saudi Club vs. Al Hazem SC: O/U 1.5
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NBA Rebounds Per Game Leader
Will Player 21 lead the NBA in rebounds during the 2025–26 NBA season?
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In the event of a tie for the highest rebounds per-game average, this market will resolve in favor of the player who appeared in the greater number of games. If the tied players also played the same number of games, the market will resolve in favor of the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
Qualification for inclusion in official NBA leaderboards (such as minimum games or statistical thresholds) will be determined according to NBA rules and applied exactly as reflected in the official leaderboard.
The resolution source will be the NBA (NBA.com/stats).
Where will Giannis be traded?
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded to the Atlanta Hawks?
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If Giannis Antetokounmpo is cut, retires, is not on an NBA roster as of the resolution date, or otherwise remains on the Bucks through the NBA trade deadline, this market will resolve to "Not Traded".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Milwaukee Bucks and/or the acquiring team; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
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The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.
Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Fed decision in January?
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?
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This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 27 - 28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Presidential Election Winner 2028
Will Person N win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
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This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
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The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.
Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?
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Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Portugal Presidential Election
Will João Cotrim Figueiredo win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?
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This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Portuguese government, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (https://www.cne.pt/).
Which coalition will form the next Dutch government?
Will the next Dutch government be PVV + JA21?
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This market will resolve to the first ruling coalition of parties that forms after the 2025 Dutch general election.
If the next Dutch Government after the election is not announced by October 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "No Coalition by October 31".
A party will only be considered part of the coalition if it signs the coalition agreement and provides at least one cabinet minister.
This market may resolve once the first government is officially announced and sworn in by the monarch, with ministers appointed under non-caretaker circumstances.
The following parties will be to be considered for this market: PVV, GroenLinks–PvdA, VVD, CDA, D66, JA21. All other parties (including but not limited to SP, BBB, NSC, DENK, PvdD, FvD, SGP, CU, and Volt) will not be considered.
Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included. If the coalition formed after the election includes all of the parties listed in a market option (along with any other parties), that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition.
For example:
If the governing coalition includes GL–PvdA + VVD + CDA + JA21, but no option explicitly lists those four together, the market will resolve to “VVD + CDA + JA21”.
If the governing coalition includes PVV + VVD + CDA + D66, the option “PVV + VVD + CDA + D66” will resolve to “Yes”, while “PVV + VVD + CDA” will resolve to “No".
If the governing coalition does not match any listed option (e.g. the governing coalition is D66 + JA21) this market will resolve to “Other”.
In the event that multiple market options each contain an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the newly elected House of Representatives. If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed coalition which received the greater number of valid votes.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of the Netherlands.
What will happen before GTA VI?
Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI?
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Elon Musk # tweets January 2 - January 9, 2026?
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?
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For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...?
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2025?
[ ACCESS_INTEL_DATA ]
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Venezuela or the United States as of September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Epstein blackmail evidence released by...?
Epstein blackmail evidence released in 2025?
[ ACCESS_INTEL_DATA ]
Blackmail is defined as any use or attempted use of compromising materials or information (such as photos, videos, documents, or incriminating knowledge) to coerce, extort, manipulate, or otherwise gain leverage over a specific person or persons.
Qualifying evidence that Epstein blackmailed any individual requires one of the following:
- A direct statement within the newly released files demonstrating that Epstein blackmailed any individual or group.
- A clear consensus of credible reporting indicating that the newly released files show that Epstein blackmailed any individual or group.
- A clear consensus of credible reporting indicating that Epstein used any materials released as part of the newly released files for blackmail.
General references to Epstein possessing damaging information, vague insinuations, or speculative commentary will not qualify.
Mentions of “leverage,” “influence,” “favors,” or similar language will not qualify unless clearly tied to the use or attempted use of compromising materials for blackmail as defined in this market.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be the content of any released files and a consensus of credible reporting.
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by...?
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by September 30?
[ ACCESS_INTEL_DATA ]
Only official announcements of Cook's resignation or removal made before her term is scheduled to end, made by either Cook or the Board of Governors, will qualify. Announcements from Trump or his administration will not alone qualify.
Temporary absences or attempts at termination which do not actually remove Cook from the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the U.S. Government however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?
[ ACCESS_INTEL_DATA ]
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?
[ ACCESS_INTEL_DATA ]
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
Will Trump meet with Putin again by...?
Will Trump meet with Putin by August 31?
[ ACCESS_INTEL_DATA ]
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Vladimir Putin meets with Donald Trump on a separate occasion from the August 15, 2025 meeting by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Encounters that are part of, or a continuation of, the August 15 meeting will not qualify, even if they occur on a different day (e.g. August 16).
A meeting is defined as any encounter where both Putin and Trump are present and interact with each other in person.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
[ ACCESS_INTEL_DATA ]
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
[ ACCESS_INTEL_DATA ]
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
How many people will Trump deport in 2025?
Will Trump deport less than 250,000?
[ ACCESS_INTEL_DATA ]
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by...?
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by June 27?
[ ACCESS_INTEL_DATA ]
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli or Iranian military forces that impact the other party’s ground territory or any official embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an Israeli missile, or an Israeli air base is hit by an Iranian drone, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on the opposing party’s territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Elon Musk # tweets January 6 - January 13, 2026?
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?
[ ACCESS_INTEL_DATA ]
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...?
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?
[ ACCESS_INTEL_DATA ]
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?
[ ACCESS_INTEL_DATA ]
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Epstein client list released by...?
Epstein client list released in 2025?
[ ACCESS_INTEL_DATA ]
To qualify, the files must contain names in a context equivalent to what is commonly referred to as Epstein’s “client list”—that is, a document that explicitly identifies a list or set of individuals as being directly connected to, participating in, facilitating, funding, soliciting, or otherwise being implicated in Jeffrey Epstein’s illegal activities.
A document may qualify even if it does not contain explicit incriminating language on its face, so long as credible reporting or accompanying official context confirms that the released document is an incriminating client list or functionally equivalent roster of individuals tied to Epstein’s illegal activity.
The following will not qualify:
- Flight logs, passenger manifests, visitor logs, or transportation records which merely show individuals traveling with, meeting with, or visiting Epstein without any explicit or contextual tie to criminal activity.
- Contact books, address lists, social calendars, guest lists, schedules, correspondence logs, or similar documents that include names solely due to social contact, proximity, acquaintance, or logistical interaction with Epstein.
- Any document listing individuals without accompanying language, context, or credible reporting that connects those individuals to Epstein’s illegal activity.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be the released files themselves and a consensus of credible reporting.
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
[ ACCESS_INTEL_DATA ]
Sovereignty is defined as the transfer of the majority of the territory of Greenland from its current status as an autonomous territory within the Kingdom of Denmark to being under the formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system.
An official announcement made by the United States and Denmark that Greenland will come under US sovereignty will qualify, even if the actual transfer of sovereignty is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. executive order, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere posts on Social Media will not.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US, Greenland, and Denmark, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that Greenland has come under U.S. sovereignty will also qualify.
Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
[ ACCESS_INTEL_DATA ]
If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market.
If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other."
The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
US strikes Iran by...?
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?
[ ACCESS_INTEL_DATA ]
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by…?
Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by January 31?
[ ACCESS_INTEL_DATA ]
Myrnohrad will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.
The territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities such as "Rodynske" with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, however the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Once Russia captures the entirety of Myrnohrad, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Myrnohrad Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/myrnohrad.jpeg
Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/qCLFQNiDKN2ABe5Q9
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
How much spending will DOGE cut in 2025?
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025?
[ ACCESS_INTEL_DATA ]
This market will resolve to the amount federal government current expenditures decrease by between the Q4 2024 report and the Q4 2025 report.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The difference will be calculated as the Q4 2024 value minus the Q4 2025 value.
The figures will be based on the initial Q4 2024 and Q4 2025 values as reported by the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank. Revisions made to these figures will not be considered, only the values reported in the initial reports will be used.
The figures will be based on the Q4 2024 and Q4 2025 values as reported by the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank as soon as the data for Q4 2025 becomes available, regardless of whether later revisions are made.
This market's resolution source is the Federal Government: Current Expenditures chart maintained by the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, displayed here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FGEXPND).
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by...?
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2025?
[ ACCESS_INTEL_DATA ]
The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine formally recognizing Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Ukraine formally recognizing Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995, “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia, which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement, is an example of a qualifying agreement.
An official unilateral pledge by Ukraine formally recognizing Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory will qualify for a “Yes” resolution even if not part of an agreement with Russia.
The April 19, 2013, Brussels Agreement between Serbia and Kosovo, in which Serbia recognized Kosovo’s de facto administration but did not formally grant de jure recognition, would not be considered a qualifying agreement under this market, as this market requires formal recognition of sovereignty rather than acknowledgment of administrative control.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Elon Musk musk # tweets in January 2026?
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets in January 2026?
[ ACCESS_INTEL_DATA ]
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?
[ ACCESS_INTEL_DATA ]
If the Supreme Court dismisses the case as improvidently granted, denies certiorari, grants/vacates/remands without deciding the merits of IEEPA authorization, affirms by an equally divided Court, or vacates due to mootness, or if the parties settle the case this market will resolve to "No."
For purposes of this market, the government prevails if the Supreme Court rules on the merits that the tariffs are authorized under IEEPA, or otherwise reverses or vacates the Federal Circuit’s holding that they are unauthorized under IEEPA, regardless of whether the Court remands for further proceedings on issues such as remedy or scope of relief. The government does not prevail if the Supreme Court affirms the Federal Circuit’s decision that the tariffs are unauthorized by IEEPA, even if the Court modifies or vacates portions of the judgment relating only to remedy or injunctive relief.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Colombia Presidential Election
Will Vicky Dávila win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
[ ACCESS_INTEL_DATA ]
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
How high will inflation get in 2025?
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2025?
[ ACCESS_INTEL_DATA ]
Venezuela leader end of 2026?
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
[ ACCESS_INTEL_DATA ]
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa.
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...?
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31?
[ ACCESS_INTEL_DATA ]
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as María Corina Machado physically entering the terrestrial territory of Venezuela. Whether or not María Corina Machado enters Venezuelan airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ukraine election held by...?
Ukraine election held by December 31, 2025?
[ ACCESS_INTEL_DATA ]
This market is based on whether national elections are actually held in Ukraine within the specified dates. Merely scheduling an election will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes".
If elections are officially scheduled for a date outside of 2025, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Ukraine, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Will Russia invade a NATO country by...?
Will Russia invade a NATO country in 2025?
[ ACCESS_INTEL_DATA ]
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by NATO member states or Russia as of May 28, 2025, will be considered the sovereign territory of those countries.
Hybrid or “grey zone” operations conducted by unmarked personnel will qualify if they are confirmed to be Russian operatives and are intended to establish de facto control over territory, as occurred in Crimea (2014) or Donbas (2014–2022).
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Macron out by...?
Macron out in 2025?
[ ACCESS_INTEL_DATA ]
If Macron departs from office before the expiry date, the market should resolve immediately.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the government of France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?
[ ACCESS_INTEL_DATA ]
Khamenei will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Supreme Leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
[ ACCESS_INTEL_DATA ]
Khamenei will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Supreme Leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.