POLYVENUE
● SYSTEM ONLINE
Operational Status: Online
Predict
The Future
PolyVenue operates as the central nervous system for speculative intelligence. Aggregating probabilities from the decentralized ether.
Contract Address (CA)
COMING SOON!
Protocol Supply
1.0B
Transaction Tax
0%
Liquidity State
LOCKED
System Version
v3.0
ARENA
Live Event Probability Stream
● LIVE FEED
$658,969,967 VOL
END: 08 Feb, 12:00
Super Bowl Champion 2026
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026?
[ ACCESS_INTEL_DATA ]
This is a market on predicting the winner of the NFL Super Bowl for the 2025/26 season.
$658,969,967 VOL
END: 08 Feb, 12:00
$168,530,103 VOL
END: 31 May, 00:00
UEFA Champions League Winner
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?
[ ACCESS_INTEL_DATA ]
This is a polymarket to predict which club will win the 2025–26 UEFA Champions League (soccer).
$168,530,103 VOL
END: 31 May, 00:00
$157,901,784 VOL
END: 27 May, 00:00
English Premier League Winner
Will Brentford win the 2025–26 English Premier League?
[ ACCESS_INTEL_DATA ]
This is a polymarket to predict which club will win the 2025–26 English Premier League (soccer).
$157,901,784 VOL
END: 27 May, 00:00
$143,771,589 VOL
END: 01 Jul, 00:00
2026 NBA Champion
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?
[ ACCESS_INTEL_DATA ]
This market is to predict the winner of the 2025–26 NBA Finals.
$143,771,589 VOL
END: 01 Jul, 00:00
$56,128,925 VOL
END: 20 Jul, 00:00
2026 FIFA World Cup Winner
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
[ ACCESS_INTEL_DATA ]
This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
$56,128,925 VOL
END: 20 Jul, 00:00
$51,399,862 VOL
END: 30 May, 00:00
La Liga Winner
Will Celta Vigo win the 2025–26 La Liga?
[ ACCESS_INTEL_DATA ]
This is a polymarket to predict which club will win the 2025–26 La Liga (soccer).
$51,399,862 VOL
END: 30 May, 00:00
$8,033,332 VOL
END: 10 Jun, 00:00
NBA MVP
Will Trae Young win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?
[ ACCESS_INTEL_DATA ]
This is a market on predicting the winner of the NBA Most Valuable Player (MVP) award for the 2025–26 NBA regular season.
$8,033,332 VOL
END: 10 Jun, 00:00
$6,066,521 VOL
END: 20 Jan, 00:00
College Football Champion 2026
Will Texas win the 2026 College Football National Championship?
[ ACCESS_INTEL_DATA ]
This is a market on which team will win the 2026 College Football National Championship.
$6,066,521 VOL
END: 20 Jan, 00:00
$4,601,950 VOL
END: 05 Jan, 02:30
Grizzlies vs. Lakers
Jaren Jackson Jr.: Assists Over 2.5
[ ACCESS_INTEL_DATA ]
In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for January 4 at 9:30PM ET:
If the Grizzlies win, the market will resolve to "Grizzlies".
If the Lakers win, the market will resolve to "Lakers".
If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed.
If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.
The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.
If the Grizzlies win, the market will resolve to "Grizzlies".
If the Lakers win, the market will resolve to "Lakers".
If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed.
If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.
The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.
$4,601,950 VOL
END: 05 Jan, 02:30
$4,005,804 VOL
END: 30 Jun, 00:00
2026 NHL Stanley Cup Champion
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?
[ ACCESS_INTEL_DATA ]
This market is to predict the winner of the 2025–26 NHL Stanley Cup championship.
$4,005,804 VOL
END: 30 Jun, 00:00
$3,312,195 VOL
END: 18 Feb, 00:00
NFL MVP
Will C.J. Stroud win the 2025–26 NFL MVP award?
[ ACCESS_INTEL_DATA ]
This is a polymarket on which player will be named the 2025–26 NFL regular season MVP.
$3,312,195 VOL
END: 18 Feb, 00:00
$3,150,732 VOL
END: -
Logan Paul’s Pikachu Illustrator Sale Price
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $18 million?
[ ACCESS_INTEL_DATA ]
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the final sale price paid for for Logan Paul's Pikachu Illustrator is greater than the listed price. Otherwise this market will resolve "No".
The market will resolve according to the final listed price including any premiums or auction fees included in the listed figure on .
The resolution source is Goldin (See:https://goldin.co/item/logan-paul-personally-owned-1998-pokemon-japanese-corocoro-promo-raretua0w).
The market will resolve according to the final listed price including any premiums or auction fees included in the listed figure on .
The resolution source is Goldin (See:https://goldin.co/item/logan-paul-personally-owned-1998-pokemon-japanese-corocoro-promo-raretua0w).
$3,150,732 VOL
END: -
$3,082,539 VOL
END: 08 Jan, 02:30
Lakers vs. Spurs
Spread: Spurs (-6.5)
[ ACCESS_INTEL_DATA ]
In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for January 7 at 9:30PM ET:
If the Lakers win, the market will resolve to "Lakers".
If the Spurs win, the market will resolve to "Spurs".
If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed.
If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.
The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.
If the Lakers win, the market will resolve to "Lakers".
If the Spurs win, the market will resolve to "Spurs".
If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed.
If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.
The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.
$3,082,539 VOL
END: 08 Jan, 02:30
$2,957,976 VOL
END: 03 Jan, 00:00
PDC World Darts Championship Winner
Will Luke Littler win the PDC World Darts Championship?
[ ACCESS_INTEL_DATA ]
The Paddy Power World Darts Championship is scheduled to take place at London's Alexandra Palace from December 11 until January 3.
This market will resolve according to the player who wins the PDC World Darts Championship.
If a listed player is eliminated from contention for the PDC World Darts Championship based on the official rules of the tournament, the relevant market will resolve to "No".
If no winner is announced by January 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source will be the official results published on the PDC website (https://www.pdc.tv).
This market will resolve according to the player who wins the PDC World Darts Championship.
If a listed player is eliminated from contention for the PDC World Darts Championship based on the official rules of the tournament, the relevant market will resolve to "No".
If no winner is announced by January 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source will be the official results published on the PDC website (https://www.pdc.tv).
$2,957,976 VOL
END: 03 Jan, 00:00
$2,954,467 VOL
END: 26 Jan, 12:00
NFC Champion
Will the Cardinals win the NFC Championship?
[ ACCESS_INTEL_DATA ]
This is a market on predicting the winner of the NFC Championship for the 2025-2026 NFL season.
$2,954,467 VOL
END: 26 Jan, 12:00
$2,571,705 VOL
END: 08 Jan, 00:30
Magic vs. Nets
Magic vs. Nets: O/U 221.5
[ ACCESS_INTEL_DATA ]
In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for January 7 at 7:30PM ET:
If the Magic win, the market will resolve to "Magic".
If the Nets win, the market will resolve to "Nets".
If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed.
If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.
The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.
If the Magic win, the market will resolve to "Magic".
If the Nets win, the market will resolve to "Nets".
If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed.
If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.
The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.
$2,571,705 VOL
END: 08 Jan, 00:30
$2,408,719 VOL
END: 08 Jan, 20:00
Arsenal FC vs. Liverpool FC
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-08?
[ ACCESS_INTEL_DATA ]
This event is for the upcoming Premier League game, scheduled for Thursday, January 8, 2026 between Arsenal FC and Liverpool FC.
$2,408,719 VOL
END: 08 Jan, 20:00
$2,261,242 VOL
END: 28 May, 00:00
Serie A League Winner
Will Roma win the 2025–26 Serie A league?
[ ACCESS_INTEL_DATA ]
This is a polymarket to predict which club will win the 2025–26 Serie A league (soccer).
$2,261,242 VOL
END: 28 May, 00:00
$2,210,873 VOL
END: 01 Feb, 00:00
2026 Men's Australian Open Winner
Will Jack Draper win the 2026 Australian Open?
[ ACCESS_INTEL_DATA ]
The 2026 Australian Open is set to take place from January 18 - February 1, 2026.
This market will resolve to the player that wins the 2026 Australian Open Men’s Singles Tournament.
If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to win the 2026 Australian Open Men’s Singles Tournament per the rules of the tournament, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”.
If the 2026 Australian Open Men’s Singles Tournament is cancelled, postponed after February 28, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Australian Open (https://ausopen.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to the player that wins the 2026 Australian Open Men’s Singles Tournament.
If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to win the 2026 Australian Open Men’s Singles Tournament per the rules of the tournament, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”.
If the 2026 Australian Open Men’s Singles Tournament is cancelled, postponed after February 28, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Australian Open (https://ausopen.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
$2,210,873 VOL
END: 01 Feb, 00:00
$2,135,590 VOL
END: 26 Jan, 12:00
AFC Champion
Will the Bills win the AFC Championship?
[ ACCESS_INTEL_DATA ]
This is a market on predicting the winner of the AFC Championship for the 2025-2026 NFL season.
$2,135,590 VOL
END: 26 Jan, 12:00
$1,895,694 VOL
END: 04 Jan, 05:00
Colts vs. Texans
Colts Team Total: O/U 13.5
[ ACCESS_INTEL_DATA ]
In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for January 4 at 12:00AM ET:
If Colts wins, the market will resolve to "Colts".
If Texans wins, the market will resolve to "Texans".
If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed.
If the game is canceled entirely or ends in a tie, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.
If Colts wins, the market will resolve to "Colts".
If Texans wins, the market will resolve to "Texans".
If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed.
If the game is canceled entirely or ends in a tie, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.
$1,895,694 VOL
END: 04 Jan, 05:00
$1,507,717 VOL
END: 08 Jan, 01:00
Suns vs. Grizzlies
Spread: Suns (-5.5)
[ ACCESS_INTEL_DATA ]
In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for January 7 at 8:00PM ET:
If the Suns win, the market will resolve to "Suns".
If the Grizzlies win, the market will resolve to "Grizzlies".
If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed.
If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.
The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.
If the Suns win, the market will resolve to "Suns".
If the Grizzlies win, the market will resolve to "Grizzlies".
If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed.
If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.
The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.
$1,507,717 VOL
END: 08 Jan, 01:00
$1,431,843 VOL
END: 28 Dec, 18:00
Buccaneers vs. Dolphins
Buccaneers vs. Dolphins
[ ACCESS_INTEL_DATA ]
In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for December 28 at 1:00PM ET:
If Buccaneers wins, the market will resolve to "Buccaneers".
If Dolphins wins, the market will resolve to "Dolphins".
If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed.
If the game is canceled entirely or ends in a tie, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.
If Buccaneers wins, the market will resolve to "Buccaneers".
If Dolphins wins, the market will resolve to "Dolphins".
If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed.
If the game is canceled entirely or ends in a tie, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.
$1,431,843 VOL
END: 28 Dec, 18:00
$1,378,413 VOL
END: 12 Apr, 21:00
Which teams will make the NBA Playoffs?
Will the Atlanta Hawks make the NBA Playoffs?
[ ACCESS_INTEL_DATA ]
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed team makes the 2025-26 NBA Playoffs. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Note: reaching the Play-In Tournament will not qualify as making the Playoffs. To make the NBA Playoffs, a team must earn one of the 16 spots in the postseason bracket.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to make the Playoffs based on the rules of the NBA (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated from reaching the Play-In), this market will resolve immediately to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NBA.
Note: reaching the Play-In Tournament will not qualify as making the Playoffs. To make the NBA Playoffs, a team must earn one of the 16 spots in the postseason bracket.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to make the Playoffs based on the rules of the NBA (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated from reaching the Play-In), this market will resolve immediately to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NBA.
$1,378,413 VOL
END: 12 Apr, 21:00
$1,310,306 VOL
END: 28 May, 00:00
Bundesliga Winner
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Bundesliga?
[ ACCESS_INTEL_DATA ]
This is a polymarket to predict which club will win the 2025–26 Bundesliga (soccer).
$1,310,306 VOL
END: 28 May, 00:00
$1,259,272 VOL
END: 24 May, 00:00
UEFA Europa League Winner
Will Aston Villa win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League?
[ ACCESS_INTEL_DATA ]
This is a polymarket to predict which club will win the 2025–26 UEFA Europa League.
$1,259,272 VOL
END: 24 May, 00:00
$1,201,985 VOL
END: 07 Feb, 12:00
NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year
Will Ashton Jeanty be the 2025-2026 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year?
[ ACCESS_INTEL_DATA ]
This market will resolve according to the player who wins 2025-2026 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Award.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the NFL.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the NFL.
$1,201,985 VOL
END: 07 Feb, 12:00
$1,068,476 VOL
END: 31 Dec, 00:00
Champions League: League Phase Winner
Will Union Saint-Gilloise finish first in UCL league phase?
[ ACCESS_INTEL_DATA ]
This market will resolve according to the team that finishes first in the league phase of the 2025–26 UEFA Champions League.
If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed club to finish first in the league phase (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the associated market will resolve to "No".
If the 2025–26 UEFA Champions League league phase is canceled or not completed by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
If two or more clubs are level on points, the ranking will be determined according to UEFA’s official tie-breaker criteria as published for the competition.
The primary resolution source will be official information from UEFA. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed club to finish first in the league phase (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the associated market will resolve to "No".
If the 2025–26 UEFA Champions League league phase is canceled or not completed by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
If two or more clubs are level on points, the ranking will be determined according to UEFA’s official tie-breaker criteria as published for the competition.
The primary resolution source will be official information from UEFA. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
$1,068,476 VOL
END: 31 Dec, 00:00
$936,362 VOL
END: 12 Apr, 00:00
NBA Win Totals: Over or Under?
Will the Atlanta Hawks win more than 47.5 regular season games in 2025–26?
[ ACCESS_INTEL_DATA ]
This is a polymarket to predict whether the listed NBA team will win more games than their projected number in the 2025–26 regular season.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed team wins more than their projected number of regular-season games. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
If the team becomes mathematically unable to exceed their projected win total before the season ends, this market will resolve to "No".
If the 2025–26 NBA regular season is canceled or not completed by May 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary source of resolution will be official information from the NBA. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed team wins more than their projected number of regular-season games. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
If the team becomes mathematically unable to exceed their projected win total before the season ends, this market will resolve to "No".
If the 2025–26 NBA regular season is canceled or not completed by May 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary source of resolution will be official information from the NBA. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
$936,362 VOL
END: 12 Apr, 00:00
$930,120 VOL
END: 14 Dec, 17:30
Levante UD vs. Villarreal CF
Will Levante UD win on 2025-12-14?
[ ACCESS_INTEL_DATA ]
This event is for the upcoming La Liga game, scheduled for Sunday, December 14, 2025 between Levante UD and Villarreal CF.
$930,120 VOL
END: 14 Dec, 17:30
$920,544 VOL
END: 09 Jan, 01:00
Cavaliers vs. Timberwolves
Spread: Timberwolves (-4.5)
[ ACCESS_INTEL_DATA ]
In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for January 8 at 8:00PM ET:
If the Cavaliers win, the market will resolve to "Cavaliers".
If the Timberwolves win, the market will resolve to "Timberwolves".
If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed.
If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.
The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.
If the Cavaliers win, the market will resolve to "Cavaliers".
If the Timberwolves win, the market will resolve to "Timberwolves".
If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed.
If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.
The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.
$920,544 VOL
END: 09 Jan, 01:00
$919,669 VOL
END: 05 Feb, 00:00
Which NBA players will be traded this season?
Will Anthony Davis be traded this season?
[ ACCESS_INTEL_DATA ]
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed NBA player is traded from their current team to another NBA team before the 2025-2026 NBA trade deadline. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The NBA trade deadline for the 2025-2026 season is scheduled for February 5, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NBA; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The NBA trade deadline for the 2025-2026 season is scheduled for February 5, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NBA; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
$919,669 VOL
END: 05 Feb, 00:00
$903,129 VOL
END: 30 May, 00:00
French Ligue 1 Winner
Will PSG win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1?
[ ACCESS_INTEL_DATA ]
This is a polymarket to predict which club will win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1 (soccer).
$903,129 VOL
END: 30 May, 00:00
$822,174 VOL
END: 27 May, 00:00
English Premier League - Top 4 Finish
Will Arsenal finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings?
[ ACCESS_INTEL_DATA ]
This is a polymarket to predict which clubs finish in the top 4 of the English Premier League standings for the 2025–26 season.
If the listed club officially finishes in the top 4 of the English Premier League standings at the end of the season, the market will resolve to "Yes." Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."
If two or more clubs are tied on points for a top 4 position, resolution will follow the official English Premier League tiebreaking procedures.
If the 2025–26 English Premier League season is canceled or not completed before October 1, 2026, this market will resolve to "No."
The primary resolution source will be official information from the English Premier League. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed club officially finishes in the top 4 of the English Premier League standings at the end of the season, the market will resolve to "Yes." Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."
If two or more clubs are tied on points for a top 4 position, resolution will follow the official English Premier League tiebreaking procedures.
If the 2025–26 English Premier League season is canceled or not completed before October 1, 2026, this market will resolve to "No."
The primary resolution source will be official information from the English Premier League. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
$822,174 VOL
END: 27 May, 00:00
$791,737 VOL
END: 09 Jan, 00:00
Pacers vs. Hornets
1H Spread: Hornets (-1.5)
[ ACCESS_INTEL_DATA ]
In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for January 8 at 7:00PM ET:
If the Pacers win, the market will resolve to "Pacers".
If the Hornets win, the market will resolve to "Hornets".
If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed.
If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.
The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.
If the Pacers win, the market will resolve to "Pacers".
If the Hornets win, the market will resolve to "Hornets".
If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed.
If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.
The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.
$791,737 VOL
END: 09 Jan, 00:00
$761,697 VOL
END: 06 Dec, 00:00
F1 Constructors' Champion
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?
[ ACCESS_INTEL_DATA ]
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Constructors’ Championship for the 2026 F1 season.
This market will resolve as soon as the official results of the final scheduled race of the 2026 F1 season are known.
In the case of a tie between multiple teams, this market will resolve according to the tiebreak procedure used by F1 to determine the 2026 F1 Constructors’ champion.
If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2026 F1 Constructors’ Championship based on the rules of F1 (e.g., they are mathematically eliminated from contention), the corresponding market will resolve to “No.”
If the F1 season is permanently canceled or has not been completed by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be information from F1.
This market will resolve as soon as the official results of the final scheduled race of the 2026 F1 season are known.
In the case of a tie between multiple teams, this market will resolve according to the tiebreak procedure used by F1 to determine the 2026 F1 Constructors’ champion.
If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2026 F1 Constructors’ Championship based on the rules of F1 (e.g., they are mathematically eliminated from contention), the corresponding market will resolve to “No.”
If the F1 season is permanently canceled or has not been completed by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be information from F1.
$761,697 VOL
END: 06 Dec, 00:00
$741,054 VOL
END: 30 Jun, 00:00
NBA Defensive Player of the Year Winner
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Year?
[ ACCESS_INTEL_DATA ]
This market will resolve according to the player who is awarded the 2025–26 NBA Defensive Player of the Year.
If the listed player is not announced as a finalist for the 2025–26 Defensive Player of the Year, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the NBA. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed player is not announced as a finalist for the 2025–26 Defensive Player of the Year, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the NBA. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
$741,054 VOL
END: 30 Jun, 00:00
$715,047 VOL
END: 09 Jan, 00:30
Miami vs. Ole Miss
Miami vs. Ole Miss
[ ACCESS_INTEL_DATA ]
In the upcoming CFB game, scheduled for January 8 at 7:30PM ET:
If the Miami win, the market will resolve to "Miami".
If the Ole Miss win, the market will resolve to "Ole Miss".
If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed.
If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the Miami win, the market will resolve to "Miami".
If the Ole Miss win, the market will resolve to "Ole Miss".
If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed.
If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.
$715,047 VOL
END: 09 Jan, 00:30
$703,702 VOL
END: 09 Jan, 01:00
Heat vs. Bulls
Heat vs. Bulls: O/U 238.5
[ ACCESS_INTEL_DATA ]
In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for January 8 at 8:00PM ET:
If the Heat win, the market will resolve to "Heat".
If the Bulls win, the market will resolve to "Bulls".
If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed.
If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.
The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.
If the Heat win, the market will resolve to "Heat".
If the Bulls win, the market will resolve to "Bulls".
If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed.
If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.
The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.
$703,702 VOL
END: 09 Jan, 01:00
$671,741 VOL
END: 09 Jan, 02:00
Mavericks vs. Jazz
1H Spread: Mavericks (-3.5)
[ ACCESS_INTEL_DATA ]
In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for January 8 at 9:00PM ET:
If the Mavericks win, the market will resolve to "Mavericks".
If the Jazz win, the market will resolve to "Jazz".
If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed.
If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.
The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.
If the Mavericks win, the market will resolve to "Mavericks".
If the Jazz win, the market will resolve to "Jazz".
If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed.
If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.
The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.
$671,741 VOL
END: 09 Jan, 02:00
$661,189 VOL
END: 12 Apr, 00:00
2026 FIFA World Cup: Which countries qualify?
Will Italy qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
[ ACCESS_INTEL_DATA ]
This is a market on which teams will qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
$661,189 VOL
END: 12 Apr, 00:00
$643,506 VOL
END: 09 Jan, 01:00
Islanders vs. Predators
Islanders vs. Predators
[ ACCESS_INTEL_DATA ]
In the upcoming NHL game, scheduled for January 8 at 8:00PM ET:
If the Islanders win, the market will resolve to "Islanders".
If the Predators win, the market will resolve to "Predators".
If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed.
If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.
The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods and shootouts. In the event of a shootout, one goal will be added to the winning team's score for the purpose of resolution.
If the Islanders win, the market will resolve to "Islanders".
If the Predators win, the market will resolve to "Predators".
If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed.
If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.
The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods and shootouts. In the event of a shootout, one goal will be added to the winning team's score for the purpose of resolution.
$643,506 VOL
END: 09 Jan, 01:00
$619,573 VOL
END: 18 Jan, 00:00
Africa Cup of Nations Winner
Will Morocco win the CAF Africa Cup of Nations Morocco 2025?
[ ACCESS_INTEL_DATA ]
This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the CAF Africa Cup of Nations Morocco 2025.
If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed team to win the CAF Africa Cup of Nations Morocco 2025 based on the rules of the tournament (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the CAF Africa Cup of Nations Morocco 2025 is permanently canceled or has not been completed by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be ESPN (https://www.espn.com/soccer/league/_/name/caf.nations); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed team to win the CAF Africa Cup of Nations Morocco 2025 based on the rules of the tournament (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the CAF Africa Cup of Nations Morocco 2025 is permanently canceled or has not been completed by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be ESPN (https://www.espn.com/soccer/league/_/name/caf.nations); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
$619,573 VOL
END: 18 Jan, 00:00
$586,908 VOL
END: 08 Jan, 19:45
AC Milan vs. Genoa CFC
Will AC Milan win on 2026-01-08?
[ ACCESS_INTEL_DATA ]
This event is for the upcoming Serie A game, scheduled for Thursday, January 8, 2026 between AC Milan and Genoa CFC.
$586,908 VOL
END: 08 Jan, 19:45
$571,887 VOL
END: 09 Jan, 00:00
Maple Leafs vs. Flyers
Maple Leafs vs. Flyers
[ ACCESS_INTEL_DATA ]
In the upcoming NHL game, scheduled for January 8 at 7:00PM ET:
If the Maple Leafs win, the market will resolve to "Maple Leafs".
If the Flyers win, the market will resolve to "Flyers".
If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed.
If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.
The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods and shootouts. In the event of a shootout, one goal will be added to the winning team's score for the purpose of resolution.
If the Maple Leafs win, the market will resolve to "Maple Leafs".
If the Flyers win, the market will resolve to "Flyers".
If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed.
If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.
The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods and shootouts. In the event of a shootout, one goal will be added to the winning team's score for the purpose of resolution.
$571,887 VOL
END: 09 Jan, 00:00
$557,663 VOL
END: 09 Jan, 00:00
Flames vs. Bruins
Flames vs. Bruins
[ ACCESS_INTEL_DATA ]
In the upcoming NHL game, scheduled for January 8 at 7:00PM ET:
If the Flames win, the market will resolve to "Flames".
If the Bruins win, the market will resolve to "Bruins".
If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed.
If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.
The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods and shootouts. In the event of a shootout, one goal will be added to the winning team's score for the purpose of resolution.
If the Flames win, the market will resolve to "Flames".
If the Bruins win, the market will resolve to "Bruins".
If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed.
If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.
The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods and shootouts. In the event of a shootout, one goal will be added to the winning team's score for the purpose of resolution.
$557,663 VOL
END: 09 Jan, 00:00
$539,751 VOL
END: 31 Dec, 23:55
Who will win a women's Calendar Grand Slam in 2026?
Will Aryna Sabalenka win a Calendar Grand Slam in 2026?
[ ACCESS_INTEL_DATA ]
This is a market to predict who will win a women's tennis Calendar Grand Slam in 2026.
This market resolves to the single woman player who wins the Women's Singles titles at all four Grand Slam tournaments in 2026. The relevant 2026 Grand Slams are the Women's Singles tournaments in the 2026 Australian Open, French Open, U.S. Open, and Wimbledon.
For the purpose of this market, a tournament victory is valid regardless of whether the final was won via a walkover, a mid-match retirement, or a standard completed match.
If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to achieve a Calendar Grand Slam in 2026 (e.g. Sabalenka does not win the 2026 Australian Open) this market will resolve immediately to "No".
If at any point it becomes impossible for any listed player to achieve a Calendar Grand Slam in 2026 (e.g. Sabalenka wins the 2026 Australian Open but loses in the first round of 2026 French Open) this market will resolve immediately to "None".
Otherwise, this market will resolve when the results of the final 2026 Grand Slam are official.
If any of the 2026 Grand Slam Women' Singles Tournaments are cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “None”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the organizers of the Grand Slam tournaments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market resolves to the single woman player who wins the Women's Singles titles at all four Grand Slam tournaments in 2026. The relevant 2026 Grand Slams are the Women's Singles tournaments in the 2026 Australian Open, French Open, U.S. Open, and Wimbledon.
For the purpose of this market, a tournament victory is valid regardless of whether the final was won via a walkover, a mid-match retirement, or a standard completed match.
If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to achieve a Calendar Grand Slam in 2026 (e.g. Sabalenka does not win the 2026 Australian Open) this market will resolve immediately to "No".
If at any point it becomes impossible for any listed player to achieve a Calendar Grand Slam in 2026 (e.g. Sabalenka wins the 2026 Australian Open but loses in the first round of 2026 French Open) this market will resolve immediately to "None".
Otherwise, this market will resolve when the results of the final 2026 Grand Slam are official.
If any of the 2026 Grand Slam Women' Singles Tournaments are cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “None”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the organizers of the Grand Slam tournaments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
$539,751 VOL
END: 31 Dec, 23:55
$520,303 VOL
END: 08 Jan, 14:55
Al Hilal Saudi Club vs. Al Hazem SC
Will Al Hilal Saudi Club win on 2026-01-08?
[ ACCESS_INTEL_DATA ]
This event is for the upcoming Saudi Professional League game, scheduled for Thursday, January 8, 2026 between Al Hilal Saudi Club and Al Hazem SC.
$520,303 VOL
END: 08 Jan, 14:55
$468,804 VOL
END: 12 Apr, 00:00
NBA Southeast Division Winner
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2025–2026 NBA Southeast Division?
[ ACCESS_INTEL_DATA ]
This market will resolve according to the winner of the listed division for the 2025–2026 NBA Eastern Conference Finals.
If it becomes impossible for this team to win based on the rules of the NBA this market will resolve to “No”.
If multiple teams share the same record, official NBA tie breaking rules will be used to determine the outcome.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the NBA.
If it becomes impossible for this team to win based on the rules of the NBA this market will resolve to “No”.
If multiple teams share the same record, official NBA tie breaking rules will be used to determine the outcome.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the NBA.
$468,804 VOL
END: 12 Apr, 00:00
$437,470 VOL
END: 11 Feb, 12:00
NFL Coach of the Year
Will Mike Macdonald win NFL Coach of the Year?
[ ACCESS_INTEL_DATA ]
This market will resolve according to the coach who wins the 2025-2026 NFL Coach of the Year award.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the NFL.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the NFL.
$437,470 VOL
END: 11 Feb, 12:00
$435,401 VOL
END: 09 Jan, 00:00
Devils vs. Penguins
Devils vs. Penguins
[ ACCESS_INTEL_DATA ]
In the upcoming NHL game, scheduled for January 8 at 7:00PM ET:
If the Devils win, the market will resolve to "Devils".
If the Penguins win, the market will resolve to "Penguins".
If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed.
If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.
The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods and shootouts. In the event of a shootout, one goal will be added to the winning team's score for the purpose of resolution.
If the Devils win, the market will resolve to "Devils".
If the Penguins win, the market will resolve to "Penguins".
If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed.
If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.
The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods and shootouts. In the event of a shootout, one goal will be added to the winning team's score for the purpose of resolution.
$435,401 VOL
END: 09 Jan, 00:00
$404,295 VOL
END: 18 May, 00:00
NBA Rookie of the Year
Will Player E win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award?
[ ACCESS_INTEL_DATA ]
This is a market to predict which player will win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed player is officially named the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
If the award is not announced by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the NBA (https://www.nba.com).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed player is officially named the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
If the award is not announced by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the NBA (https://www.nba.com).
$404,295 VOL
END: 18 May, 00:00
$397,317 VOL
END: 22 Feb, 00:00
2026 Winter Olympics: Most Gold Medals
Will Canada win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?
[ ACCESS_INTEL_DATA ]
This market will resolve according to the country that wins the most gold medals at the 2026 Milano-Cortina Winter Olympics, scheduled for February 6-22, 2026.
In the case of ties, the ordered list for most gold medals won will use most overall medals won as a tiebreaker (e.g. If Norway and China tie for most gold medals won, and Norway wins more overall medals than China, Norway will be ranked first and China will be second). If this also results in a tie, the country whose name comes first in alphabetical order, as listed in this market group, will be ranked higher.
This market will resolve based on the medal figures as they stand after medals are awarded for the final event in the 2026 Milano-Cortina Winter Olympics. Later changes to medal counts will not be considered toward the resolution of this market.
If the 2026 Milano-Cortina Winter Olympics are partially completed and then cancelled or postponed after December 31, 2026, this market will resolve based on the gold medals awarded in the completed events. If the 2026 Milano-Cortina Winter Olympics are entirely cancelled or postponed after December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source will be official information from the International Olympic Committee (https://www.olympics.com/).
In the case of ties, the ordered list for most gold medals won will use most overall medals won as a tiebreaker (e.g. If Norway and China tie for most gold medals won, and Norway wins more overall medals than China, Norway will be ranked first and China will be second). If this also results in a tie, the country whose name comes first in alphabetical order, as listed in this market group, will be ranked higher.
This market will resolve based on the medal figures as they stand after medals are awarded for the final event in the 2026 Milano-Cortina Winter Olympics. Later changes to medal counts will not be considered toward the resolution of this market.
If the 2026 Milano-Cortina Winter Olympics are partially completed and then cancelled or postponed after December 31, 2026, this market will resolve based on the gold medals awarded in the completed events. If the 2026 Milano-Cortina Winter Olympics are entirely cancelled or postponed after December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source will be official information from the International Olympic Committee (https://www.olympics.com/).
$397,317 VOL
END: 22 Feb, 00:00
$375,997 VOL
END: 06 Dec, 00:00
F1 Drivers' Champion
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
[ ACCESS_INTEL_DATA ]
This market will resolve according to the listed driver that finishes 1st in the driver standings for the 2026 F1 season.
This market will resolve as soon as the official results of the final scheduled race of the 2026 F1 season are known.
If multiple drivers tie for first place in the drivers standings, this market will resolve according to the tiebreak procedure used by F1 to determine the 2026 F1 Drivers’ champion.
If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed driver to win the 2026 F1 Drivers Championship based on the rules of F1 (e.g., they are mathematically eliminated from contention), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”.
If the F1 season is permanently canceled or has not been completed by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Formula 1.
This market will resolve as soon as the official results of the final scheduled race of the 2026 F1 season are known.
If multiple drivers tie for first place in the drivers standings, this market will resolve according to the tiebreak procedure used by F1 to determine the 2026 F1 Drivers’ champion.
If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed driver to win the 2026 F1 Drivers Championship based on the rules of F1 (e.g., they are mathematically eliminated from contention), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”.
If the F1 season is permanently canceled or has not been completed by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Formula 1.
$375,997 VOL
END: 06 Dec, 00:00
$365,046 VOL
END: 31 Jan, 00:00
Will xQc beat Forsen's Minecraft speedrun record by...?
Will xQc beat Forsen's Minecraft speedrun record in 2025?
[ ACCESS_INTEL_DATA ]
This market will resolve to “Yes” if xQc breaks Forsen's In-Game-Time of 15:28:130 in a Minecraft speedrun during a live stream by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve to “No” as soon as it becomes impossible for xQc to complete a qualifying speedrun within this market’s timeframe.
For the purpose of this market, “Minecraft speedrun” refers to a playthrough of Minecraft Java Edition version 1.16.1, using a random seed, starting from world creation and ending when the Ender Dragon is defeated.
For the purpose of this market, “Stream” refers to a live video broadcast hosted by xQc or where xQc is present. Prerecorded videos, videos not intended for public release, or other non-live content will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be xQc's Twitch channel (https://www.twitch.tv/xqc); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve to “No” as soon as it becomes impossible for xQc to complete a qualifying speedrun within this market’s timeframe.
For the purpose of this market, “Minecraft speedrun” refers to a playthrough of Minecraft Java Edition version 1.16.1, using a random seed, starting from world creation and ending when the Ender Dragon is defeated.
For the purpose of this market, “Stream” refers to a live video broadcast hosted by xQc or where xQc is present. Prerecorded videos, videos not intended for public release, or other non-live content will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be xQc's Twitch channel (https://www.twitch.tv/xqc); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
$365,046 VOL
END: 31 Jan, 00:00
$363,629 VOL
END: 30 Jun, 00:00
NBA Coach of the Year Winner
Will Ime Udoka win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year?
[ ACCESS_INTEL_DATA ]
This market will resolve according to the player who is awarded the 2025–26 NBA Coach of the Year.
If the listed player is not announced as a finalist for the 2025–26 Coach of the Year, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the NBA. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed player is not announced as a finalist for the 2025–26 Coach of the Year, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the NBA. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
$363,629 VOL
END: 30 Jun, 00:00
$361,970 VOL
END: 12 Apr, 00:00
NBA Assists Per Game Leader
Will Player 10 lead the NBA in assists during the 2025–26 NBA season?
[ ACCESS_INTEL_DATA ]
This market will resolve according to the player that finishes the 2025–26 NBA regular season with the highest assists per-game average of any qualified player.
In the event of a tie for the highest assists per-game average, this market will resolve in favor of the player who appeared in the greater number of games. If the tied players also played the same number of games, the market will resolve in favor of the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
Qualification for inclusion in official NBA leaderboards (such as minimum games or statistical thresholds) will be determined according to NBA rules and applied exactly as reflected in the official leaderboard.
The resolution source will be the NBA (NBA.com/stats).
In the event of a tie for the highest assists per-game average, this market will resolve in favor of the player who appeared in the greater number of games. If the tied players also played the same number of games, the market will resolve in favor of the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
Qualification for inclusion in official NBA leaderboards (such as minimum games or statistical thresholds) will be determined according to NBA rules and applied exactly as reflected in the official leaderboard.
The resolution source will be the NBA (NBA.com/stats).
$361,970 VOL
END: 12 Apr, 00:00
$357,965 VOL
END: 08 Jan, 14:55
Al Hilal Saudi Club vs. Al Hazem SC - More Markets
Al Hilal Saudi Club vs. Al Hazem SC: O/U 1.5
[ ACCESS_INTEL_DATA ]
More markets for the Saudi Pro League game, scheduled for January 8 at 9:55 AM ET.
$357,965 VOL
END: 08 Jan, 14:55
$336,660 VOL
END: 12 Apr, 00:00
NBA Rebounds Per Game Leader
Will Player 21 lead the NBA in rebounds during the 2025–26 NBA season?
[ ACCESS_INTEL_DATA ]
This market will resolve according to the player that finishes the 2025–26 NBA regular season with the highest rebounds per-game average of any qualified player.
In the event of a tie for the highest rebounds per-game average, this market will resolve in favor of the player who appeared in the greater number of games. If the tied players also played the same number of games, the market will resolve in favor of the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
Qualification for inclusion in official NBA leaderboards (such as minimum games or statistical thresholds) will be determined according to NBA rules and applied exactly as reflected in the official leaderboard.
The resolution source will be the NBA (NBA.com/stats).
In the event of a tie for the highest rebounds per-game average, this market will resolve in favor of the player who appeared in the greater number of games. If the tied players also played the same number of games, the market will resolve in favor of the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
Qualification for inclusion in official NBA leaderboards (such as minimum games or statistical thresholds) will be determined according to NBA rules and applied exactly as reflected in the official leaderboard.
The resolution source will be the NBA (NBA.com/stats).
$336,660 VOL
END: 12 Apr, 00:00
$321,275 VOL
END: 05 Feb, 00:00
Where will Giannis be traded?
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded to the Atlanta Hawks?
[ ACCESS_INTEL_DATA ]
This market will resolve to the NBA team that officially acquires Giannis Antetokounmpo in a trade from the Milwaukee Bucks before the 2025-2026 NBA season trade deadline.
If Giannis Antetokounmpo is cut, retires, is not on an NBA roster as of the resolution date, or otherwise remains on the Bucks through the NBA trade deadline, this market will resolve to "Not Traded".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Milwaukee Bucks and/or the acquiring team; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If Giannis Antetokounmpo is cut, retires, is not on an NBA roster as of the resolution date, or otherwise remains on the Bucks through the NBA trade deadline, this market will resolve to "Not Traded".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Milwaukee Bucks and/or the acquiring team; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
$321,275 VOL
END: 05 Feb, 00:00
$450,742,971 VOL
END: 07 Nov, 00:00
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
[ ACCESS_INTEL_DATA ]
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.
Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.
Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
$450,742,971 VOL
END: 07 Nov, 00:00
$187,934,448 VOL
END: 28 Jan, 00:00
Fed decision in January?
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?
[ ACCESS_INTEL_DATA ]
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 27 - 28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 27 - 28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
$187,934,448 VOL
END: 28 Jan, 00:00
$175,884,435 VOL
END: 07 Nov, 00:00
Presidential Election Winner 2028
Will Person N win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
[ ACCESS_INTEL_DATA ]
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028.
This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
$175,884,435 VOL
END: 07 Nov, 00:00
$163,327,776 VOL
END: 07 Nov, 00:00
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
[ ACCESS_INTEL_DATA ]
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.
Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.
Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
$163,327,776 VOL
END: 07 Nov, 00:00
$149,490,097 VOL
END: 31 Dec, 00:00
Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?
[ ACCESS_INTEL_DATA ]
This market will resolve according to the next individual Donald Trump, as President of the United States, formally nominates to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
$149,490,097 VOL
END: 31 Dec, 00:00
$92,013,778 VOL
END: 25 Jan, 14:00
Portugal Presidential Election
Will João Cotrim Figueiredo win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?
[ ACCESS_INTEL_DATA ]
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Portugal on 18 or 25 January 2026, with a possible second round on 8 or 15 February 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Portuguese government, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (https://www.cne.pt/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Portuguese government, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (https://www.cne.pt/).
$92,013,778 VOL
END: 25 Jan, 14:00
$25,548,760 VOL
END: 31 Oct, 00:00
Which coalition will form the next Dutch government?
Will the next Dutch government be PVV + JA21?
[ ACCESS_INTEL_DATA ]
The 2025 Dutch general election is scheduled to take place on October 29, 2025.
This market will resolve to the first ruling coalition of parties that forms after the 2025 Dutch general election.
If the next Dutch Government after the election is not announced by October 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "No Coalition by October 31".
A party will only be considered part of the coalition if it signs the coalition agreement and provides at least one cabinet minister.
This market may resolve once the first government is officially announced and sworn in by the monarch, with ministers appointed under non-caretaker circumstances.
The following parties will be to be considered for this market: PVV, GroenLinks–PvdA, VVD, CDA, D66, JA21. All other parties (including but not limited to SP, BBB, NSC, DENK, PvdD, FvD, SGP, CU, and Volt) will not be considered.
Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included. If the coalition formed after the election includes all of the parties listed in a market option (along with any other parties), that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition.
For example:
If the governing coalition includes GL–PvdA + VVD + CDA + JA21, but no option explicitly lists those four together, the market will resolve to “VVD + CDA + JA21”.
If the governing coalition includes PVV + VVD + CDA + D66, the option “PVV + VVD + CDA + D66” will resolve to “Yes”, while “PVV + VVD + CDA” will resolve to “No".
If the governing coalition does not match any listed option (e.g. the governing coalition is D66 + JA21) this market will resolve to “Other”.
In the event that multiple market options each contain an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the newly elected House of Representatives. If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed coalition which received the greater number of valid votes.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of the Netherlands.
This market will resolve to the first ruling coalition of parties that forms after the 2025 Dutch general election.
If the next Dutch Government after the election is not announced by October 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "No Coalition by October 31".
A party will only be considered part of the coalition if it signs the coalition agreement and provides at least one cabinet minister.
This market may resolve once the first government is officially announced and sworn in by the monarch, with ministers appointed under non-caretaker circumstances.
The following parties will be to be considered for this market: PVV, GroenLinks–PvdA, VVD, CDA, D66, JA21. All other parties (including but not limited to SP, BBB, NSC, DENK, PvdD, FvD, SGP, CU, and Volt) will not be considered.
Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included. If the coalition formed after the election includes all of the parties listed in a market option (along with any other parties), that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition.
For example:
If the governing coalition includes GL–PvdA + VVD + CDA + JA21, but no option explicitly lists those four together, the market will resolve to “VVD + CDA + JA21”.
If the governing coalition includes PVV + VVD + CDA + D66, the option “PVV + VVD + CDA + D66” will resolve to “Yes”, while “PVV + VVD + CDA” will resolve to “No".
If the governing coalition does not match any listed option (e.g. the governing coalition is D66 + JA21) this market will resolve to “Other”.
In the event that multiple market options each contain an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the newly elected House of Representatives. If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed coalition which received the greater number of valid votes.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of the Netherlands.
$25,548,760 VOL
END: 31 Oct, 00:00
$13,479,235 VOL
END: 31 Jul, 12:00
What will happen before GTA VI?
Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI?
[ ACCESS_INTEL_DATA ]
This is a market on predicting events that will occur before the release of Grand Theft Auto VI.
$13,479,235 VOL
END: 31 Jul, 12:00
$11,542,513 VOL
END: 09 Jan, 17:00
Elon Musk # tweets January 2 - January 9, 2026?
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?
[ ACCESS_INTEL_DATA ]
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from January 2 12:00 PM ET to January 9, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
$11,542,513 VOL
END: 09 Jan, 17:00
$11,339,725 VOL
END: 31 Mar, 00:00
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...?
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2025?
[ ACCESS_INTEL_DATA ]
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela between September 6 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Venezuela or the United States as of September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Venezuela or the United States as of September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
$11,339,725 VOL
END: 31 Mar, 00:00
$10,818,404 VOL
END: 31 Mar, 00:00
Epstein blackmail evidence released by...?
Epstein blackmail evidence released in 2025?
[ ACCESS_INTEL_DATA ]
This market will resolve to "Yes" if previously unreleased documents containing evidence that Jeffrey Epstein blackmailed any individual are made public by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Blackmail is defined as any use or attempted use of compromising materials or information (such as photos, videos, documents, or incriminating knowledge) to coerce, extort, manipulate, or otherwise gain leverage over a specific person or persons.
Qualifying evidence that Epstein blackmailed any individual requires one of the following:
- A direct statement within the newly released files demonstrating that Epstein blackmailed any individual or group.
- A clear consensus of credible reporting indicating that the newly released files show that Epstein blackmailed any individual or group.
- A clear consensus of credible reporting indicating that Epstein used any materials released as part of the newly released files for blackmail.
General references to Epstein possessing damaging information, vague insinuations, or speculative commentary will not qualify.
Mentions of “leverage,” “influence,” “favors,” or similar language will not qualify unless clearly tied to the use or attempted use of compromising materials for blackmail as defined in this market.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be the content of any released files and a consensus of credible reporting.
Blackmail is defined as any use or attempted use of compromising materials or information (such as photos, videos, documents, or incriminating knowledge) to coerce, extort, manipulate, or otherwise gain leverage over a specific person or persons.
Qualifying evidence that Epstein blackmailed any individual requires one of the following:
- A direct statement within the newly released files demonstrating that Epstein blackmailed any individual or group.
- A clear consensus of credible reporting indicating that the newly released files show that Epstein blackmailed any individual or group.
- A clear consensus of credible reporting indicating that Epstein used any materials released as part of the newly released files for blackmail.
General references to Epstein possessing damaging information, vague insinuations, or speculative commentary will not qualify.
Mentions of “leverage,” “influence,” “favors,” or similar language will not qualify unless clearly tied to the use or attempted use of compromising materials for blackmail as defined in this market.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be the content of any released files and a consensus of credible reporting.
$10,818,404 VOL
END: 31 Mar, 00:00
$10,154,030 VOL
END: 31 Dec, 00:00
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by...?
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by September 30?
[ ACCESS_INTEL_DATA ]
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Lisa Cook announces her resignation or otherwise ceases to be a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors for any period of time between August 25, and September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only official announcements of Cook's resignation or removal made before her term is scheduled to end, made by either Cook or the Board of Governors, will qualify. Announcements from Trump or his administration will not alone qualify.
Temporary absences or attempts at termination which do not actually remove Cook from the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the U.S. Government however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Only official announcements of Cook's resignation or removal made before her term is scheduled to end, made by either Cook or the Board of Governors, will qualify. Announcements from Trump or his administration will not alone qualify.
Temporary absences or attempts at termination which do not actually remove Cook from the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the U.S. Government however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
$10,154,030 VOL
END: 31 Dec, 00:00
$9,264,131 VOL
END: 31 Jan, 00:00
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?
[ ACCESS_INTEL_DATA ]
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
$9,264,131 VOL
END: 31 Jan, 00:00
$7,697,450 VOL
END: 31 Mar, 00:00
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?
[ ACCESS_INTEL_DATA ]
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
$7,697,450 VOL
END: 31 Mar, 00:00
$6,562,553 VOL
END: 31 Mar, 00:00
Will Trump meet with Putin again by...?
Will Trump meet with Putin by August 31?
[ ACCESS_INTEL_DATA ]
On August 15, 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin met in person at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson near Anchorage, Alaska, for a summit focused on potential peace terms in Ukraine.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Vladimir Putin meets with Donald Trump on a separate occasion from the August 15, 2025 meeting by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Encounters that are part of, or a continuation of, the August 15 meeting will not qualify, even if they occur on a different day (e.g. August 16).
A meeting is defined as any encounter where both Putin and Trump are present and interact with each other in person.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Vladimir Putin meets with Donald Trump on a separate occasion from the August 15, 2025 meeting by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Encounters that are part of, or a continuation of, the August 15 meeting will not qualify, even if they occur on a different day (e.g. August 16).
A meeting is defined as any encounter where both Putin and Trump are present and interact with each other in person.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
$6,562,553 VOL
END: 31 Mar, 00:00
$5,910,661 VOL
END: 31 Dec, 00:00
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
[ ACCESS_INTEL_DATA ]
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
$5,910,661 VOL
END: 31 Dec, 00:00
$5,187,740 VOL
END: 31 Dec, 00:00
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
[ ACCESS_INTEL_DATA ]
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
$5,187,740 VOL
END: 31 Dec, 00:00
$4,379,345 VOL
END: 31 Dec, 12:00
How many people will Trump deport in 2025?
Will Trump deport less than 250,000?
[ ACCESS_INTEL_DATA ]
This is a market on the prediction of the number of people Trump will deport in 2025.
$4,379,345 VOL
END: 31 Dec, 12:00
$4,133,080 VOL
END: 31 Mar, 00:00
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by...?
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by June 27?
[ ACCESS_INTEL_DATA ]
This market will resolve to "Yes" if either Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate, or Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Israeli soil or any official Israeli embassy or consulate, by 11:59 PM ET on the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli or Iranian military forces that impact the other party’s ground territory or any official embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an Israeli missile, or an Israeli air base is hit by an Iranian drone, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on the opposing party’s territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli or Iranian military forces that impact the other party’s ground territory or any official embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an Israeli missile, or an Israeli air base is hit by an Iranian drone, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on the opposing party’s territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
$4,133,080 VOL
END: 31 Mar, 00:00
$3,926,644 VOL
END: 13 Jan, 17:00
Elon Musk # tweets January 6 - January 13, 2026?
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?
[ ACCESS_INTEL_DATA ]
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from January 6 12:00 PM ET to January 13, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
$3,926,644 VOL
END: 13 Jan, 17:00
$3,781,132 VOL
END: 31 Dec, 12:00
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...?
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?
[ ACCESS_INTEL_DATA ]
This is a market on the likelihood of Russia capturing Kostyantynivka by a specific date.
$3,781,132 VOL
END: 31 Dec, 12:00
$3,761,860 VOL
END: 31 Jan, 00:00
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?
[ ACCESS_INTEL_DATA ]
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
$3,761,860 VOL
END: 31 Jan, 00:00
$3,710,143 VOL
END: 30 Jun, 00:00
Epstein client list released by...?
Epstein client list released in 2025?
[ ACCESS_INTEL_DATA ]
This market will resolve to “Yes” if files which were not previously public and which pertain to the illegal activities of Jeffrey Epstein are made public by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, and those files contain a list of individuals associated with Epstein in connection with his illegal activities, including but not limited to sex trafficking or related crimes. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
To qualify, the files must contain names in a context equivalent to what is commonly referred to as Epstein’s “client list”—that is, a document that explicitly identifies a list or set of individuals as being directly connected to, participating in, facilitating, funding, soliciting, or otherwise being implicated in Jeffrey Epstein’s illegal activities.
A document may qualify even if it does not contain explicit incriminating language on its face, so long as credible reporting or accompanying official context confirms that the released document is an incriminating client list or functionally equivalent roster of individuals tied to Epstein’s illegal activity.
The following will not qualify:
- Flight logs, passenger manifests, visitor logs, or transportation records which merely show individuals traveling with, meeting with, or visiting Epstein without any explicit or contextual tie to criminal activity.
- Contact books, address lists, social calendars, guest lists, schedules, correspondence logs, or similar documents that include names solely due to social contact, proximity, acquaintance, or logistical interaction with Epstein.
- Any document listing individuals without accompanying language, context, or credible reporting that connects those individuals to Epstein’s illegal activity.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be the released files themselves and a consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, the files must contain names in a context equivalent to what is commonly referred to as Epstein’s “client list”—that is, a document that explicitly identifies a list or set of individuals as being directly connected to, participating in, facilitating, funding, soliciting, or otherwise being implicated in Jeffrey Epstein’s illegal activities.
A document may qualify even if it does not contain explicit incriminating language on its face, so long as credible reporting or accompanying official context confirms that the released document is an incriminating client list or functionally equivalent roster of individuals tied to Epstein’s illegal activity.
The following will not qualify:
- Flight logs, passenger manifests, visitor logs, or transportation records which merely show individuals traveling with, meeting with, or visiting Epstein without any explicit or contextual tie to criminal activity.
- Contact books, address lists, social calendars, guest lists, schedules, correspondence logs, or similar documents that include names solely due to social contact, proximity, acquaintance, or logistical interaction with Epstein.
- Any document listing individuals without accompanying language, context, or credible reporting that connects those individuals to Epstein’s illegal activity.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be the released files themselves and a consensus of credible reporting.
$3,710,143 VOL
END: 30 Jun, 00:00
$3,410,844 VOL
END: 31 Dec, 00:00
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
[ ACCESS_INTEL_DATA ]
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States officially announces that Greenland will come under US sovereignty by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
Sovereignty is defined as the transfer of the majority of the territory of Greenland from its current status as an autonomous territory within the Kingdom of Denmark to being under the formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system.
An official announcement made by the United States and Denmark that Greenland will come under US sovereignty will qualify, even if the actual transfer of sovereignty is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. executive order, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere posts on Social Media will not.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US, Greenland, and Denmark, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that Greenland has come under U.S. sovereignty will also qualify.
Sovereignty is defined as the transfer of the majority of the territory of Greenland from its current status as an autonomous territory within the Kingdom of Denmark to being under the formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system.
An official announcement made by the United States and Denmark that Greenland will come under US sovereignty will qualify, even if the actual transfer of sovereignty is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. executive order, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere posts on Social Media will not.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US, Greenland, and Denmark, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that Greenland has come under U.S. sovereignty will also qualify.
$3,410,844 VOL
END: 31 Dec, 00:00
$2,743,730 VOL
END: 10 Oct, 00:00
Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
[ ACCESS_INTEL_DATA ]
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market.
If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other."
The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market.
If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other."
The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
$2,743,730 VOL
END: 10 Oct, 00:00
$2,464,974 VOL
END: 30 Jun, 00:00
US strikes Iran by...?
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?
[ ACCESS_INTEL_DATA ]
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between the time of this market's creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
$2,464,974 VOL
END: 30 Jun, 00:00
$2,328,839 VOL
END: 31 Dec, 00:00
Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by…?
Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by January 31?
[ ACCESS_INTEL_DATA ]
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Myrnohrad by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
Myrnohrad will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.
The territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities such as "Rodynske" with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, however the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Once Russia captures the entirety of Myrnohrad, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Myrnohrad Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/myrnohrad.jpeg
Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/qCLFQNiDKN2ABe5Q9
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Myrnohrad will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.
The territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities such as "Rodynske" with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, however the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Once Russia captures the entirety of Myrnohrad, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Myrnohrad Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/myrnohrad.jpeg
Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/qCLFQNiDKN2ABe5Q9
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
$2,328,839 VOL
END: 31 Dec, 00:00
$2,311,051 VOL
END: 31 Dec, 12:00
How much spending will DOGE cut in 2025?
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025?
[ ACCESS_INTEL_DATA ]
This market will resolve based on federal government current expenditures as reported by the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, displayed here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FGEXPND).
This market will resolve to the amount federal government current expenditures decrease by between the Q4 2024 report and the Q4 2025 report.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The difference will be calculated as the Q4 2024 value minus the Q4 2025 value.
The figures will be based on the initial Q4 2024 and Q4 2025 values as reported by the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank. Revisions made to these figures will not be considered, only the values reported in the initial reports will be used.
The figures will be based on the Q4 2024 and Q4 2025 values as reported by the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank as soon as the data for Q4 2025 becomes available, regardless of whether later revisions are made.
This market's resolution source is the Federal Government: Current Expenditures chart maintained by the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, displayed here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FGEXPND).
This market will resolve to the amount federal government current expenditures decrease by between the Q4 2024 report and the Q4 2025 report.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The difference will be calculated as the Q4 2024 value minus the Q4 2025 value.
The figures will be based on the initial Q4 2024 and Q4 2025 values as reported by the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank. Revisions made to these figures will not be considered, only the values reported in the initial reports will be used.
The figures will be based on the Q4 2024 and Q4 2025 values as reported by the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank as soon as the data for Q4 2025 becomes available, regardless of whether later revisions are made.
This market's resolution source is the Federal Government: Current Expenditures chart maintained by the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, displayed here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FGEXPND).
$2,311,051 VOL
END: 31 Dec, 12:00
$2,208,796 VOL
END: 31 Dec, 12:00
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by...?
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2025?
[ ACCESS_INTEL_DATA ]
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to formally recognize Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine formally recognizing Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Ukraine formally recognizing Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995, “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia, which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement, is an example of a qualifying agreement.
An official unilateral pledge by Ukraine formally recognizing Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory will qualify for a “Yes” resolution even if not part of an agreement with Russia.
The April 19, 2013, Brussels Agreement between Serbia and Kosovo, in which Serbia recognized Kosovo’s de facto administration but did not formally grant de jure recognition, would not be considered a qualifying agreement under this market, as this market requires formal recognition of sovereignty rather than acknowledgment of administrative control.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine formally recognizing Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Ukraine formally recognizing Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995, “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia, which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement, is an example of a qualifying agreement.
An official unilateral pledge by Ukraine formally recognizing Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory will qualify for a “Yes” resolution even if not part of an agreement with Russia.
The April 19, 2013, Brussels Agreement between Serbia and Kosovo, in which Serbia recognized Kosovo’s de facto administration but did not formally grant de jure recognition, would not be considered a qualifying agreement under this market, as this market requires formal recognition of sovereignty rather than acknowledgment of administrative control.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
$2,208,796 VOL
END: 31 Dec, 12:00
$2,100,487 VOL
END: 01 Feb, 05:00
Elon Musk musk # tweets in January 2026?
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets in January 2026?
[ ACCESS_INTEL_DATA ]
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X during the month of January 2026.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
$2,100,487 VOL
END: 01 Feb, 05:00
$2,023,130 VOL
END: 31 Dec, 00:00
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?
[ ACCESS_INTEL_DATA ]
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Court of the United States issues a decision that reverses, vacates, or otherwise overturns the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit’s August 29, 2025 decision in V.O.S. Selections, Inc. v. Trump, in which the Federal Circuit held that the tariffs imposed by Executive Orders 14193, 14194, 14195, 14257, and 14266 exceeded the President’s authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) by December 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No."
If the Supreme Court dismisses the case as improvidently granted, denies certiorari, grants/vacates/remands without deciding the merits of IEEPA authorization, affirms by an equally divided Court, or vacates due to mootness, or if the parties settle the case this market will resolve to "No."
For purposes of this market, the government prevails if the Supreme Court rules on the merits that the tariffs are authorized under IEEPA, or otherwise reverses or vacates the Federal Circuit’s holding that they are unauthorized under IEEPA, regardless of whether the Court remands for further proceedings on issues such as remedy or scope of relief. The government does not prevail if the Supreme Court affirms the Federal Circuit’s decision that the tariffs are unauthorized by IEEPA, even if the Court modifies or vacates portions of the judgment relating only to remedy or injunctive relief.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the Supreme Court dismisses the case as improvidently granted, denies certiorari, grants/vacates/remands without deciding the merits of IEEPA authorization, affirms by an equally divided Court, or vacates due to mootness, or if the parties settle the case this market will resolve to "No."
For purposes of this market, the government prevails if the Supreme Court rules on the merits that the tariffs are authorized under IEEPA, or otherwise reverses or vacates the Federal Circuit’s holding that they are unauthorized under IEEPA, regardless of whether the Court remands for further proceedings on issues such as remedy or scope of relief. The government does not prevail if the Supreme Court affirms the Federal Circuit’s decision that the tariffs are unauthorized by IEEPA, even if the Court modifies or vacates portions of the judgment relating only to remedy or injunctive relief.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
$2,023,130 VOL
END: 31 Dec, 00:00
$1,899,810 VOL
END: 21 Jun, 14:00
Colombia Presidential Election
Will Vicky Dávila win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
[ ACCESS_INTEL_DATA ]
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
$1,899,810 VOL
END: 21 Jun, 14:00
$1,831,987 VOL
END: 31 Dec, 12:00
How high will inflation get in 2025?
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2025?
[ ACCESS_INTEL_DATA ]
This is a market on predicting the rate of inflation in 2025.
$1,831,987 VOL
END: 31 Dec, 12:00
$1,742,563 VOL
END: 31 Dec, 00:00
Venezuela leader end of 2026?
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
[ ACCESS_INTEL_DATA ]
This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa.
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa.
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
$1,742,563 VOL
END: 31 Dec, 00:00
$1,735,031 VOL
END: 31 Jan, 00:00
María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...?
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31?
[ ACCESS_INTEL_DATA ]
If María Corina Machado visits Venezuela between market creation and Janaury 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as María Corina Machado physically entering the terrestrial territory of Venezuela. Whether or not María Corina Machado enters Venezuelan airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as María Corina Machado physically entering the terrestrial territory of Venezuela. Whether or not María Corina Machado enters Venezuelan airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
$1,735,031 VOL
END: 31 Jan, 00:00
$1,734,757 VOL
END: 31 Dec, 12:00
Ukraine election held by...?
Ukraine election held by December 31, 2025?
[ ACCESS_INTEL_DATA ]
This market will resolve to "Yes" if national elections for the parliament and/or presidency of Ukraine are held between February 12 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market is based on whether national elections are actually held in Ukraine within the specified dates. Merely scheduling an election will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes".
If elections are officially scheduled for a date outside of 2025, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Ukraine, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market is based on whether national elections are actually held in Ukraine within the specified dates. Merely scheduling an election will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes".
If elections are officially scheduled for a date outside of 2025, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Ukraine, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
$1,734,757 VOL
END: 31 Dec, 12:00
$1,728,005 VOL
END: 31 Dec, 12:00
Will Russia invade a NATO country by...?
Will Russia invade a NATO country in 2025?
[ ACCESS_INTEL_DATA ]
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any NATO country between May 28 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by NATO member states or Russia as of May 28, 2025, will be considered the sovereign territory of those countries.
Hybrid or “grey zone” operations conducted by unmarked personnel will qualify if they are confirmed to be Russian operatives and are intended to establish de facto control over territory, as occurred in Crimea (2014) or Donbas (2014–2022).
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by NATO member states or Russia as of May 28, 2025, will be considered the sovereign territory of those countries.
Hybrid or “grey zone” operations conducted by unmarked personnel will qualify if they are confirmed to be Russian operatives and are intended to establish de facto control over territory, as occurred in Crimea (2014) or Donbas (2014–2022).
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
$1,728,005 VOL
END: 31 Dec, 12:00
$1,720,518 VOL
END: 30 Jun, 12:00
Macron out by...?
Macron out in 2025?
[ ACCESS_INTEL_DATA ]
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France for any length of time between January 2 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Macron departs from office before the expiry date, the market should resolve immediately.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the government of France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If Macron departs from office before the expiry date, the market should resolve immediately.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the government of France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
$1,720,518 VOL
END: 30 Jun, 12:00
$1,707,204 VOL
END: 30 Jun, 00:00
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?
[ ACCESS_INTEL_DATA ]
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran's Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, is removed from power for any length of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Khamenei will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Supreme Leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Khamenei will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Supreme Leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
$1,707,204 VOL
END: 30 Jun, 00:00
$1,646,328 VOL
END: 31 Mar, 00:00
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
[ ACCESS_INTEL_DATA ]
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran's Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, is removed from power for any length of time between this market's creation and the specified date and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Khamenei will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Supreme Leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Khamenei will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Supreme Leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
$1,646,328 VOL
END: 31 Mar, 00:00